Never allow market regulation to stop halfway
According to the latest data, prices of new and second-hand housing in four first-tier cities in September fell by 0.1%, while prices of new and second-hand housing in the second and third-tier cities in 70 large and medium-sized cities fell.
Journalists visiting the market also confirmed that the data has become "cold": in the last month, Beijing has opened or near the opening of projects have been discounted to varying degrees. From a nationwide perspective, the "Gold Nine Silver Ten" major real estate developers choose to reduce prices to promote sales, the volume of new housing transactions around the decline, the market gradually fell back to a high level.
The housing prices in the first-tier cities have been revised back, and the real estate market in the second and third-tier cities has cooled down. This shows that the sustained and stringent regulation policies have achieved remarkable results. The market is expected to change positively, the rising trend of housing prices has been curbed, and the real estate market as a whole has maintained a stable operation.
Is the real estate market cooling trend? How should we look at the future trend of housing prices?
To predict the real estate development pattern and prospects, it is necessary to clarify the core policy orientation of the development of China's real estate market. At the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee held on July 31, it was proposed that the problem of the real estate market should be resolved, that the city should take measures to promote the balance of supply and demand, reasonably guide expectations, rectify the market order and resolutely curb the rise of housing prices. Accelerate the establishment of a long-term mechanism to promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.
Closely around the "housing do not stir" positioning, the current real estate regulation has been implemented for more than two years. Following the first half of the year around the introduction of regulatory policies about 200 times, in the second half of the real estate regulation and control there is no "breathing breath, rest foot", all localities according to local conditions, precise measures, local regulatory responsibility is being implemented.
On July 31, Shenzhen issued a series of control measures, such as restricting the sale of individuals for three years, restricting the purchase of enterprises, renting and not selling commercial apartments, notarizing the sale of hot spots. On August 17, the Ministry of Housing and Construction interviewed the principal officials of Haikou, Sanya, Yantai, Yichang and Yangzhou, demanding serious investigation and punishment of the problems of covering the land with covers and hoarding houses and speculating houses. Since the second half of this year, more and more cities in the country have joined the accumulation fund policy to tighten up the ranks.
It is noteworthy that on September 7, the legislative plan of the Standing Committee of the Thirteenth National People's Congress announced that the Real Estate Tax Law was included in the first category of the draft law which is relatively mature and will be submitted for consideration during its term of office.
The combination of demand side and supply side has created positive conditions for the stability of the property market. Around the establishment of rent-purchase housing system and real estate long-term mechanism, many pilot work is being carried out in an orderly manner.
On the one hand, China is speeding up the establishment and improvement of urban housing security system, supporting the first-line, second-line and other cities with large inflow of population, increasing the effective supply of public rental housing and common property rights housing, and increasing the housing security for eligible New citizens.
On the other hand, the Ministry of Housing and Construction speeds up the establishment of a real estate market monitoring system, improves the evaluation and assessment mechanism for local real estate regulation and control work, strictly supervises and firmly accountable for the weak work, market fluctuations, and failures to achieve regulatory objectives.
Various policies show that the central government's determination to curb the rise of housing prices will not change, the regulatory measures are not pretend to be "fancy boxing and embroidered legs", "housing does not speculate" positioning is being further implemented from all aspects. Policy "talk" plays a key role in guiding and stabilizing house price expectations, restoring the restlessness of rising house prices in second and third-tier cities, and letting some places place their hopes of "flying a little longer" quickly freeze.
At present, some noises suggest that the downward pressure on the economy may increase the government's relaxation of real estate regulation. To be clear, according to the regulation spirit of "resolving the problem of real estate market" and "resolutely curbing the rise of housing prices", which was emphasized at the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee on July 31, real estate regulation will never be allowed to be abandoned halfway and its achievements will be abandoned. Never break, while the long-term mechanism of real estate is still under study and not yet fully established, in the crucial period when the real estate regulation and control is gradually transforming from administrative measures to comprehensive measures, we will not allow any relaxation of the original regulatory policy system, allowing housing prices to rise.
At the same time, we must see that the healthy development of the real estate market still has some challenges that need to be overcome step by step. More emergency administrative measures are adopted in the early stage of regulation and control, which has played a role in restraining housing prices and reducing risks in the short term. In the long run, it is necessary to change from administrative measures to comprehensive measures, and form a package of policy tools, including finance, land, finance and taxation, housing security, market management, to achieve stable land prices, stable housing prices, and so on. Stabilize the expected target and keep the real estate market running smoothly.
It can be predicted that, as long as the "house is used for living, not for speculation" positioning is firmly implemented in practice, and the control force remains unchanged, to speed up the establishment of a long-term mechanism for real estate, housing prices will lose the basis for irrational rise. Speculative home buyers, land finance adherents and even the whole society need to recognize the general situation, abandon the illusion that regulation will be relaxed due to the increasing downward pressure of the economy, abandon the illusion of "resurgence" of housing prices, timely adjust the mentality to return to rationality, and sink down to do some practical things conducive to the long-term development of the national economy.